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New Directions for the Soviet Union
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17703 |
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EDITORIAL
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| Issue
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6 / 1990 |
1,430 Words |
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Morton A. Kaplan
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During the week of April 9 I was in Moscow for the World Media Conference. The activities surrounding the conference made clear the great importance President Gorbachev is giving to new directions in Soviet foreign policy. This was made even more clear by the front page story in Pravda of Gorbachev's meeting with Reverend Moon, the founder and sponsor of the conference.
The Soviet Union headed by Gorbachev is radically different from previous Soviet incarnations. It is a potential ally of the free world and can play constructive roles with respect to Africa, the Middle East, the Far East including Korea, and particularly Europe. But Gorbachev is limited by the enormous economic and nationality problems he faces. Perestroika so far has not gotten off the ground. The Soviet GNP has dropped by perhaps 15 percent. There are extreme shortages of foodstuffs and other necessities. Soap is scarce in the mining regions. And the immediate consequences of a free market in terms of rising prices and increased shortages likely would be riots in the streets that would shake the regime.
Nationality problems are potentially explosive. Gorbachev has no problem with giving independence to the Baltic states. The problem arises from the effects of a grant of immediate independence upon other nationalities before Gorbachev can even attempt to negotiate a loose confederation. Already resistance to change is significant among important elements of the population and some military leaders who fear for their ability to carry out their defense functions. Perestroika, glasnost, and democracy within the Soviet Union could founder. And our hopes for a better world would receive a severe setback if precipitate change were allowed to undermine ordered changes.
While visiting the director of the Institute of Europe, Vitaly Zhurkin, I told him, in response to his assertion that it was politically necessary for Gorbachev that Lithuania rescind its declaration of independence, that in my view, this was impossible. I did suggest, however, that it might be possible to suspend the declaration for a period of time. He indicated that this would be acceptable and several days later I read of a phone call from Moscow to President Landsbergis suggesting just this. And just prior to composing this editorial, I read the statement issued by President Mitterrand of France and Chancellor Kohl of West Germany which assured President Landsbergis of their support for Lithuanian independence while asking him to suspend the declaration for a period of time while negotiations are carried on.
On several occasions in this magazine I have called for reestablishing an informal Concert of Europe within which the great powers could meet to discuss important issues and to which secondary powers could be invited when their interests were involved. The letter from France and Germany suggests the role such a Concert could play in assisting constructive change, while assuring the affected parties of ultimate support. Such a Concert could also play an important role in the Soviet Union in legitimating its government's participation in charge. It could, moreover, provide assurance that these changes would increase Soviet security by guaranteeing the Soviet Union a constructive role in producing a new European order in which it played an important cooperative part.
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