We may or may not be at the "end" of history, with liberal democracy triumphant, but there is little doubt that we are watching the beginning of the end of communism in Eastern Europe. In country after country, the people are seeking to remove the barriers of Marxism-Leninism just as surely as the people of East and West Berlin are tearing down the Wall. Where it will all end, knows only God. After all, who imagined that Ronald Reagan's "evil empire" would hold multi-candidate elections in 1988? Who foretold that Reagan's successor would be calling on the West to help a Soviet leader stay in office?
Amid so many fast-paced changes, what the United States needs is not ad hoc policies but a comprehensive strategy. In this month's Special Report, THE WORLD & I presents a region-by-region plan to deal with the unpredictable decade ahead.
One thing has not changed: The center of U.S. strategy is its relations with the Soviet Union. There is a consensus that Gorbachev is a lesser evil that any of the hard-liners who might replace him; it is therefore in the U.S. national interest that he stay in power to carry out his reforms. Harvard scholar Marshall Goldman is convinced this is the right policy. "Americans should ask themselves," argues Goldman, "if they would be willing to offer massive support of the Soviet Union if it were beset by another enormous earthquake." According to Goldman, Gorbachev faces a nationwide political earthquake, and there are many ways that Americans can and should help (such as providing commodities and practical management advice) to transform the Soviets' military-style society into a consumer-oriented market economy.
The rapid changes in the Soviet Union have led to once-unbelievable shifts in Eastern Europe. Gorbachev has given the go-ahead to former satellites to reform in order to save themselves. The crumbling of the Berlin Wall presages the possible reunification of Germany, creating difficult questions for both the Warsaw Pact and NATO. Robert Pfaltzgraff, president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, says that the United states must work closely with its Western European allies in supporting both the East's changes and the forthcoming Euro-market.
With regard to Asia- what many call the most dynamic region of the world- Norman Palmer, professor emeritus of the University of Pennsylvania, proposes that the United States reshape its policy to put greater emphasis on economic relations and less on military security. We should recognize, he says, that America's closest Asian allies, Japan and Korea, deserve to be treated as equals, and we should not allow these important relationships to be eclipsed by trade problems.
Foreign policy specialist Michael Radu warns that while communism appears to have withered and died in the First and Second worlds, it is very much alive in the Third World. How should the United States respond? The best U.S. strategy, counsels Radu, is to base its Third World policy on the political and economic realities of individual countries rather than on American hopes and expectations.
The United States now faces one of the most dynamic decades in its history. As it has in the past, it must seek to steer a steady course through the turbulent seas. In a sense, the United States confronts an era much like the one following the end of World War II. To succeed
...
Read Full Article
|
