The events taking place in Eastern Europe are so momentous that they have pushed even the crisis-torn Middle East off the front pages. But recent elections in Jordan - the first free general elections to be held in that country in 22 years - remind us that, in a more gradual less dramatic way, the same impulses toward political liberalization and economic reform are making their appearance in the Middle East and North Africa.
Progress in the region has not been universal, and where it has occurred it can only be measured over a time frame of several years. Of the 22 Arab states in the region, the governments of four - Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Jordan - have made clear commitments to political and economic reform. Gut elsewhere - in Syria, Iraq and Libya, for example - there has been no appreciable loosening of the autocratic grip. And among the traditional monarchies and principalities of the Arabian Peninsula, there has been, if anything, retrograde movement from the 1970s, when parliaments with limited powers were instituted in Kuwait and Bahrain, only to be dissolved when they proved to be too obstreperous for the ruling houses.
In allowing general elections for a new parliament last November, Jordan's King Hussein made a far-reaching decision to broaden the political base of his regime and set his country on the road to democratization. This does not mean that a full-fledged democracy has been established overnight: Even the new parliament will have limited powers, and under the constitution the king retains much leverage through his power to dissolve parliament, call new elections, or govern by decree under emergency laws (as he has for much of the past two decades).
Nevertheless, in taking this step (against the advice of some of his close advisers, some say), the king made a commitment to govern in some kind of partnership with popularly elected representatives. He has the constitutional right to return to authoritarian rule, but the knows he cannot do that without damage to his own political standing. The election is a milestone in Jordan's political development, and it is also an event that will have an impact in neighboring Arab states.
In the election results, the Muslim Brotherhood and other candidates campaigning under Islamic slogans made a strong showing, winning 32 of the parliament's 80 seats. Of the balance, about a dozen went to candidates who might be described as liberal, reformist, or Arab nationalist. The remaining 35 seats were won by establishment figures and traditionalists who are likely to be supportive of the king's program.
The strength of the "Islamic" vote will probably cause the king to make some concessions to Islamic groups on domestic issues, and it may also make it somewhat more difficult for the king to play a role in Arab-Israeli negotiations, should the peace process make enough progress fro this to become a practical issue.
More broadly, however, the king is not likely to allow Jordan's fundamentally liberal, pro-Western orientation to be altered by the agenda of the Islamic extremists. In the campaign, the Muslim Brotherhood called uncompromisingly for the application of promisingly for the application of sharia (Islamic) law and the opening of Jordan's border for military hostilities against Israel. The king was quick to draw a line in the sand against these extreme
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