It was just 11 years ago that the United States, after a protracted and sometimes bitter national debate, agreed to give the Panamanian government control of the Panama Canal and the U.S. military bases that guard the vital waterway. In another 11 years--on December 31, 1999--the actual transfer is scheduled to take place.
If the situation in Panama does not improve--indeed, if there is not a change in government in the troubled Central American country--there is little or no chance that the canal will change hands. In the grand scheme of things, that would probably be the best thing that could happen in terms of U.S. security interests. It could, however, lead to conflict, and most assuredly would deal another crippling blow to U.S. prestige south of the border, adding to our troubles not only in Panama, but throughout the region as well.
At this stage, there are several givens: 1) Dictatorial strongman Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega must go; 2) The United States must protect its interests in the region, assuring the security of the canal beyond the year 2000 and safeguarding the 12,000 U.S. military personnel and 30,000 civilians living in Panama; and 3) the United States now faces one of its greatest foreign policy challenges in recent years, in which easy answers will not suffice.
If the United States fails the test, an already bad situation will become much worse. The price of failure is high. But the price of doing nothing--letting Noriega cement stronger ties with the Colombian drug mafia and terrorist groups, Cuba, the Marxist-Leninist Ortega brothers in Nicaragua, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, and the Soviet Union--will inevitably be higher.
Noriega, who seized power in 1985 by ousting civilian President Nicolas Ardito Barletta, has a long history of courting America's enemies, including Cuba and Nicaragua. The Noriega-Castro-Ortega connection already has expanded the Kremlin's military and intelligence capabilities in the Americas, though Noriega appears more interested in power and money than ideology. Panama would, of course, be a valuable addition to the Soviet camp. Since the signing of the Panama Canal Treaty in 1977, Soviet efforts to influence events in Panama have increased dramatically.
Not surprisingly, the Soviets have been quick to take advantage of the escalating tensions between the United States and the Noriega regime. In an effort to play on anti-U.S. sentiments, the Soviets, in league with leaders of the 15,000-man Panamanian Defense Force (PDF), have launched a disinformation campaign against the democratic Civic Crusade, trying to portray it as a CIA front. The party line from Moscow--glasnost notwithstanding--is that "reactionary" and "expansionist" forces in Washington are using "imperialistic" pressure to bully Panama.
To complicate matters, Noriega has been expanding ties with Middle Eastern nations and organizations involved in terrorism--including Iran, Syria, and the PLO--and has sent a personal envoy to Libya to meet with Qaddafi in an effort to strengthen bilateral ties and acquire Libyan financial support.
Terrorist Ties
The Middle East
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