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The Future of Southern Africa
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15418 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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12 / 1989 |
2,795 Words |
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Peter Duignan
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If South African President Frederik de Klerk keeps his promise to step up reforms and share power with blacks, the United States should, in turn, phase out its policy of sanctions and disinvestments. This would restore international confidence in South Africa and allow the economy to return to its presanctions high growth rate of 4 or 5 percent a year. If apartheid is ended, investors return, and the South African government reduces its level of intervention, the economic future of South Africa and southern Africa would be bright.
The injustices and inequalities to be found in South Africa are apparent to all. Nevertheless, black South Africans have derived very real benefits from the progressive nature of the country's economic system. Wages of blacks have gone up steadily, with their rate of increase exceeding that of white wages during the past five years by 49 percent. Social services (health care, education, and the like) still leave much to be desired, but they have expanded impressively. High school enrollment has increased sixfold since 1977. Twice as many blacks as whites entered universities in 1989; as a result, blacks will soon dominate all parts of the economy, higher education, and the professions. Economic development and diversification have helped erode apartheid in South Africa in the past; they should continue to do so in the future.
In economic terms, at any rate, the development of South Africa has been an extraordinary success story. Sixty years ago, South Africa was a poverty-stricken land that was dependent--like many Third World countries today--on the export of raw materials. Today it is the economic giant of the continent. Its GNP is more than 10 times that of Kenya and more than 25 times that of Ethiopia. Its industrial growth rate has, in fact, been astounding. It is the wealthiest and most powerful state of Africa. South Africa accounts for 20 percent of the continent's wealth, 40 percent of its industrial production, 80 percent of its steel, and 60 percent of its electricity. It has 50 percent of all the automobiles and telephones in Africa.
South Africa's future looks good if reforms continue and foreign investments increase. Whatever their political assumptions or racial background, demographers agree on one prediction: by the year 2000 South Africa will have a population of perhaps 50 million, vastly greater than today's 31 million. This population will be heavily concentrated in existing urban areas. The Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vereeniging complex may well become a gigantic conurbation containing nearly as many people as the whole of South Africa during the 1950s. There will be great new cities in places such as Saldanha and Richards Bay. The proportion of whites to blacks will be somewhat reduced (1 to 6 or 7); nevertheless, every ethnic segment of the population will have grown extensively.
The populations of Swaziland, Lesotho, and Botswana--independent countries that form part of the greater southern African complex--will also swell. How will those people make a living? Much will depend on South Africa's economic growth and the nature of its domestic politics.
It is unlikely that the world will abandon gold as a currency of international exchange, so South Africa will continue to prosper. Gold will gain rather than lose value, even if the Western countries succeed in slowing down or arresting their present rate of inflation. The shortage of foreign capital could impede the
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