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A Farewell to Arms?


Article # : 15414 

Section : CURRENT ISSUES
Issue Date : 12 / 1989  1,870 Words
Author : M. Hough

       The termination of hostilities in Namibia--leading to elections there--and the current peace initiatives in Angola are, of course, linked. South Africa deemed it important to obtain withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola, as Pretoria viewed the Cuban presence as disturbing the balance of power in southern Africa. To achieve this, South Africa had to withdraw its forces from southern Angola and agree to a date for the implementation of UN Resolution 435.
       
        Moreover, South Africa had found its financial commitments in Namibia to be a substantial drain on its resources and had already slashed its contribution to the Namibian budget. Of course, the Cubans and the South-West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) claimed that their military pressure on South Africa, especially in Angola, were a factor. South Africa, in turn, saw military pressure by UNITA (assisted by South Africa) on Cuba and the Angolan Defense Force (FAPLA), as well as South African military pressure on SWAPO in Angola and Namibia, as important factors leading to the peace initiatives.
       
        International pressure on South Africa (including a possible escalation of sanctions), as well as demands for independence by the internal parties in Namibia, also played a role. Partly as a result of its new approach to Third World conflict situations, the USSR most certainly also was involved in putting pressure on Cuba to withdraw its troops from Angola. This would, in turn, leave the government in Luanda to eventually face UNITA without the protection of Cuban troops, if there were no settlement of the civil war (although UNITA would no longer have the benefit of South African assistance). The civil war also placed a heavy burden on Angola's resources. And although an internal settlement in Angola did not form part of any settlement agreement in south-western Africa, President Bush pledged to continue pursuing a peaceful settlement between UNITA and the MPLA government in Luanda, and to use U.S. influence to achieve this.
       
        Finally, the diplomatic efforts of the parties involved in the agreements that were ultimately reached played a major role in ironing out differences and achieving compromises on certain issues.
       
        The Angolan Issue
       
        UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi has been consistently clear about UNITA's political objectives in Angola. Primarily, these entail the initial formation of a government of national unity in Luanda, to be followed by a popularly elected government. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, on the other hand, stated in mid-1989 that the MPLA government accepted the "integration of UNITA" into the government. It was also alleged that Savimbi had made an offer to step aside from politics temporarily. This was later followed by reports that he would, in fact, go into exile, a rumor vehemently denied by Savimbi.
       
        Clearly, the MPLA is concerned about the possible influence the charismatic Savimbi could exert in Luanda. Savimbi also rejected any notion that UNITA would accept amnesty, clemency, or integration into the MPLA as a substitute for granting UNITA's political demands. He stressed that UNITA's army had not been defeated and that he would remain the organization's leader.
       
        According to the MPLA, the key points that emerged from the peace plan announced in
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