Latin America is in very deep trouble. And when Latin America is in deep trouble it means that U.S. policy there will soon be in very deep trouble as well. It will not do for the United States to try to ignore the region or its problems as if they did not exist; our recent historical experiences with the area should have taught us the peril of failing to pay it sufficient attention. "Benign neglect" is no longer adequate as a basis for policy; as in Cuba in the 1950s and Central America in the 1970s, benign neglect allows small problems to fester into larger ones and produces disasters for U.S. foreign policy.
Latin America's current problems are profound, deep-rooted, and structural; they will not be easily resolved, and certainly not by a single presidential message or some new sleight of hand between Congress and the Department of State. Rather, they require deep thought, a multifaceted strategy, and a long-term, sustained commitment by the United States to the area.
The crisis in Latin America is economic, social, and political. Economically, the region has experienced no, little, or retrogressive growth during the entire decade of the 1980s; and the situation is not getting any better. There is almost no capital going into the area from any source; and the little capital that is there, both foreign and domestic, is rapidly fleeing. Without capital, of course, there can be no development, and negative-sum game--that is, for every winner there will have to be a loser, or else everyone will turn out to be a loser.
Socially, the conditions in the region are getting worse. Hunger, disease, frustration, and hopelessness are all spreading. Social gaps are widening, inflation and austerity measures are devastating the middle and lower classes, and living standards are falling. The depressed and depressing conditions have come at precisely the time when modern communications and the openings to democracy that have been so heartening in the area in the last decade have significantly raised popular expectations. Those are precisely the conditions--raised expectations at a time of declining living standards--that Crane Brinton and a host of experts have emphasized as the cause of revolutionary upheaval. Recent riots in the Dominican Republic, Brazil, Venezuela, and now Argentina have provided us with a foretaste of what is to come.
Politically, Latin America is again fragmenting and polarizing. The euphoria for democracy has passed. The prudent and pragmatic presidents (for the most part) who were in power in the 1980s are about to yield power to a new wave of populists and even demagogues. Peronist Carlos Menem in Argentina is the first of the new breed of populist politicians we can expect to come to power. They will undoubtedly mismanage their economies as they have often done in the past, provoking further political unraveling. That will likely lead to new guerrilla challenges and again put immense popular pressures on the Latin American militaries to "save" the country. Such rumblings and polarization will cause major problems for U.S. foreign policy.
The question is not so much the terrible conditions in Latin America--on that we can agree. The real issue is what we should do about them.
Economics
The 1980s
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