On paper, it looks good: From the depths of despotism a dozen years ago, South America now emerges pristinely democratic. In fact, every republic in this vast continent has--or will soon have--a government elected democratically in an open and competitive contest.
Well, almost. It is true that Guyana--the former British dependency--has not been caught up in the democratic tide surging over that great southern landmass. But for a generation no one has paid attention, unfortunately, to what happens in Georgetown, except for neighboring Venezuela, which claims the country up to the Essequibo River.
Quibbles aside, the democratization of South America amounts to a great success for the Reagan-Bush administration belief that support for democracy is more important than hectoring selective countries on human rights--the leitmotiv of the Carter years. After all, in 1976 there were ten dictatorships (mostly military) in South America, and soon there will be none--assuming, of course, there are no unscheduled, unconstitutional, and violent changes in leadership. To be sure, this is an obvious caveat, but there are grounds for hope, at least in the short run.
Panama remains the ultimate exception to everything said and will be covered last. Belonging neither to South nor Central America, Panama has its own peculiar characteristics, but the ruling regime's blatant disregard for democratic procedure must temper even the most cautious optimism about its prospects there and elsewhere.
But first, the good news.
Recently, South America has had three prudential elections and a key referendum. All were, on balance, solid democratic pluses. The elections in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina, as well as Uruguay's plebiscite, offer some measure of things to come. Within the year, three similar presidential votes will be held in Brazil, Chile, and Peru; most observers expect they too will take place on or ahead of schedule.
Still, before we prematurely celebrate the establishment of a permanently democratic new order in South America, it is better to review the region's current and looming problems, because even when there is a happy outcome, the path to democracy can still take some odd turns.
Paraguay's elections were a big surprise, as no presidential election was scheduled at all. Paraguayans had taken care of that chore in 1988 by re-electing, as they had every five years since 1958, Gen. Alfredo Stroessner. But Stroessner was not to finish his seventh term. The longest ruling autocrat in the Americas (he seized power in a coup in 1954) was toppled in February by his longtime top commander, Andres Rodriguez.
Not surprisingly, Rodriguez did a little fancy-work on the constitution and announced himself as the Colorado party's candidate for the suddenly vacated presidency. The snap election on May 1 allowed only a few months for the divided and disorganized opposition to put together an effective campaign. It could not, of course, and Rodriguez garnered 74 percent of the vote while the Colorados once again swamped the other parties in the congressional contests. That surprised no one, although in Stroessner's last return to the
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