Nicaragua will hold elections early next year, nine months ahead of schedule. As in 1984, Nicaraguans are being called to the polls ahead of time by the Marxist-Leninist regime, a decision prompted by the Central American presidents' Costa del Sol summit in February 1989.
The Central Americans' initiative was pragmatic and noble. It considered their own national interests as well as the means to secure peace for the tragic Nicaraguan people. However, under the quid pro quo negotiated with the Sandinista government, they may have, perhaps unwittingly, made an error costly to Nicaraguan democrats by advancing the elections. The measure may deny the opposition sufficient time for adequate preparation. It might have been more prudent to first concentrate efforts on achieving effective national reconciliation and only then hold elections. But since the February date for elections is now a foregone conclusion, the Nicaraguan democratic leadership must try to make the best of it.
The Central American presidents signed a commitment that, indeed, is radical and far-reaching, sponsoring in Nicaragua an ambitious agenda to be implemented in a limited time-frame: immediate cessation of all Contra hostility against the Sandinistas in exchange for democratization of the regime. It should be noted, however, that the meeting took place at a time when Nicaraguan "wetbacks" were crossing the U.S.-Mexican border in alarming numbers in search of refuge in the United States. Honduras was concerned about the prospect of 15,000 armed Contras plus 50,000 of their immediate relatives remaining on Honduran soil for an indefinite time. In addition, Costa Rica--mindful of its neutrality and social stability--was growing restless about the soaring Nicaraguan refugee community. Even more pressing was the need for the United States, after several years of failure, to graciously get out of its entanglement in insurgency against the Sandinistas.
While the agenda adopted in Costa del Sol, E1 Salvador, include an amnesty, freedom of the press, and other fundamental civic rights, elections stand out. Being a tangible way to challenge the incumbent Sandinista dictatorship, the elections have attracted world attention. Even the most recalcitrant members of the opposition, aware that U.S.-backed military action against the Sandinistas is no longer possible, see in the elections a litmus test--one they believe would prefer not to have to cope with the discomfort of elections, they see the possibility of manipulating them to humble their adversaries.
The Central American presidents' dramatic resolution meshed with incessant appeals for peace from the archbishop of Managua, Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo. His position reflects what seems to be a Vatican determination to push for an end to the civil war. Although the war was waged against a Marxist dictatorship that has shown hostility toward the church, the Holy See condemns violence as a means to obtain justice, especially if it proves to be futile. Moreover, support for the initiative was general, including U.S. bipartisan approval, Soviet-Cuban assent, and the enthusiasm of key governments in Latin America and Europe.
What makes these elections different from others held before in Nicaragua is this mandate from the community of nations, which compels the Sandinistas, as well as the opposition, to participate. This could not be otherwise, given the dependence both sides have on
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