Until recently, the nations of Latin America seemed resolutely embarked on a march toward the development of democratic institutions, more stable societies, and--in the more optimistic analyses--a resolution of the six-year foreign debt crisis that has wreaked havoc on the region's economies. In the past few months, however, the indications coming out of the vast area to the south of the United States have been inauspicious and, for most specialists in Latin American affairs, downright confusing.
On the positive side, some of Latin America's more important countries have, in recent years, emerged from the dark shadow of military dictatorship and taken steps, however faltering, down the path to democratization. In the past half-decade, military regimes have stepped aside in such nations as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay to make room for civilian governments.
Chile took a definitive step toward democracy in October 1988 when the country's electorate voted to end 15 years of harsh rule by military dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet and the military government vowed to respect the popular will. If all goes according to plan, elections for a new Chilean civilian government will be held at the end of 1989.
In Bolivia, once the hotbed of South American political unrest, a peaceful and orderly presidential election was held in May. True, no candidate received a majority of the vote, and the Bolivian Congress will have to choose a new chief executive in August from among the front-runners; but the way seems open for an unaccustomed peaceful transition from one elected government to another in the formerly volatile Andean country.
Brazil adopted a new constitution, providing for direct popular elections this November. If not aborted, these elections will bring to a final close more than two decades of military rule. And in February 1989, a swift and unexpected coup ended the 34-year dictatorship of Gen. Alfredo Stroessner, Latin America's longest-ruling despot. The coup leader, Gen. Andres Rodriguez, was subsequently elected president in relatively free elections on May 1; he promised an open society, a toleration of political dissent, and a freer media.
Disquieting signs appeared, however, when Venezuela, seemingly one of the hemisphere's stronger democracies, erupted in bloody rioting in late February over the imposition of harsh austerity measures designed to attack the country's massive foreign debt problem. Many Venezuelan politicians blamed the trouble on the rigid rules laid down by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it was clear to most financial analysts that Venezuela had postponed far too long the reforms needed to balance the government's budget and permit free market forces to influence, if not guide, the country's economic future.
Similar violence came to Argentina in May and June with widespread food riots in Buenos Aires, Rosario, and other major cities. Mobs attacked and looted grocery stores and in the ensuring clashes between security forces and roving bands, at least four people were killed and hundreds placed under arrest. The rioting in Argentina occurred during the interregnum between Peronist Carlos Saul Menem's election in May and the constitutional transfer of power from incumbent President Alfonsin in December. In the absence of firm government action, the Argentine economy had soared
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