There are increasing signs of political stress and economic strain in Latin America: Populist politicians are succeeding moderate democrats, little or no economic growth occurred in the 1980s, riots are breaking out from Venezuela to Argentina. Yesterday's euphoria about democracy has been replaced by today's fear of new guerrilla terrorism and a resulting inclination by Latin American militaries to "save" their respective countries.
How serious are conditions in Latin America? Is democracy the wave of the past in the region? What can be done by the leaders and peoples of Latin America, and the United States, to solve the economic, social, and political crises?
Richard C. Schroeder, a Latin American specialist and consultant to the Organization of American States, argues that the underlying reason for the current unrest is economic. After a 17-year period of uninterrupted expansion, Latin America has not managed to expand its economy by as much as 4 percent in any of the last seven years. In nearly all countries, per capita gross domestic product was lower last year than in 1980. He warns that the economic crisis of the 1980s could touch off a political crisis in the 1990s.
Almost every republic in Latin America does or will soon have a democratically elected government, reports Roger Fontaine, formerly of the National Security Council staff. But, he adds, democracy in Latin America "is still a weak reed" and "could be broken at anytime, anywhere." Recent electoral results in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina were generally encouraging, but upcoming contests in Brazil, Chile, and Peru may disturb North Americans and Western Europeans who prefer their democracy to be "smooth, straight, and uncomplicated."
Arturo Cruz, the presidential candidate of the democratic opposition in the Nicaraguan elections of 1984, analyzes the forthcoming elections in that Marxist-led Central American country, arguing that the opposition must campaign vigorously, demand fairness, and involve the people in the electoral process.
Max Primorac of the Council for Inter-American Security examines the remarkable economic turnaround of Bolivia. The lesson to be gleaned from its experience, one that could be emulated by other Latin American nations, is that hyperinflation can be eliminated by instituting tight monetary and fiscal policies within a liberal economic environment.
For all the Latin American sensitivity about the "colossus of the north," the United States continues to play an essential role in the region. According to Howard Wiarda of the University of Massachusetts and the American Enterprise Institute, the U.S. program should include social and economic assistance along with necessary military aid. It should emphasize working toward a resolution of the debt crisis without absolving Latin America of the need for internal reform or passing the costs on the U.S. Treasury. A key actor should be the National Endowment for Democracy, which should expand its efforts to build and consolidate democratic institutions. U.S. efforts, Wiarda insists, must be "bolstered by a diplomacy and a political commitment" that puts our relations with Latin America on the same basis as those with Western Europe. Such a balanced and comprehensive policy would do what good policy is supposed to do--help our Latin American friends and allies and
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