In "Poland: on the Path to Reconciliation," in Current Issues this month, former Polish Ambassador Zdzislaw Rurarz discusses the tenuous negotiations that are proceeding between Solidarity and the Polish government. These talks may lead to the relegation of Solidarity. However, this process had to be forced on a resistant Communist Party by General Jaruzelski, who agreed to a number of onerous conditions that would be placed upon Solidarity--including its recognition of the Communist structure of government and the dominant role of the Communist Party--in order to obtain sufficient party support for the negotiations.
Solidarity's initial response is that this offer is sufficient for talks to begin, but that the conditions are subject to discussion. Moreover, Lech Walesa has stated that the union is prepared to collaborate with the government, but that it cannot keep the support of its members, particularly the younger ones, if it agrees to the conditions. Walesa promised to work to introduce pluralism in Poland by reducing the monopolistic control of the Communist Party.
These developments might make it appear that General Jaruzelski is adopting the same reformist role in Poland that Mikhail Gorbachev is playing in the Soviet Union. This, I believe, is an error. Jaruzelski is no reformer. He is a true supporter of the "dictatorship of the proletariat."
When the general declared martial law in 1981, there was no genuine danger of Soviet intervention. Moreover, the pretext for martial law--the radical measures taken by Solidarity--had been inspired by agents provocateurs. Even after the declaration of martial law, Jaruzelski could have used the occasion to clean out the hard-liners; for the reformers, who were then a majority in the party, had not yet resigned in disgust. He then could have reached a social compact with Solidarity that would have helped to stimulate the economy and that could have been supported by the West. He chose not to do this. And the TV news broadcasts that showed Jaruzelski prancing in Moscow shortly thereafter made it clear that he was very pleased with himself.
Why then is Jaruzelski playing the liberal now? The Polish economy is in tatters and the Soviet Union cannot be of assistance. Indeed, a worsening situation in Poland is a threat to the Soviet Union. Unlike the hard-line members of the party, who are trying to protect their perquisites, Jaruzelski, who is in charge, will be accountable for abject failure of the economy. He is simply being rational. And Gorbachev, who has no real reformers to lean on in Poland, is left with Jaruzelski as the only alternative to those hard-liners, who are merely trying to postpone individual disaster for as long as possible.
Nonetheless, the current negotiations are the only game in town. The full weight of Western influence must be brought to bear behind the scenes to support a reasonable compact between Solidarity and Jaruzelski. In the first place, no decent person will wish for conditions in Poland to become even worse for ordinary Poles than they now are. Second, these negotiations may result in more pluralism in Poland than Jaruzelski intends. And in the third place, the real contest will be fought out in the Soviet Union.
That contest is more tenuous than many in the West understand. Gorbachev commands the heights, but the apparatchiks command
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