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The Central American Quagmire
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16447 |
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EDITORIAL
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| Issue
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5 / 1989 |
1,058 Words |
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Morton A. Kaplan
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On February 14, the Central American presidents agreed on a program that would, they said, bring democracy to Nicaragua. This subject is discussed in "The Contras: RIP?" in Currrent Issues this month.
Has the Arias peace plan really succeeded, or is the Contra issue merely being swept under the rug? If the Arias plan has really succeeded, were the opponents of the Contras correct at the outset? Even if Nicaraguan President Ortega was sincere in his conciliatory statements at the meeting of the presidents, it does not necessarily follow that the opponents of the Contras were correct to trust that the Sandinistas would institute reforms if given the opportunity. The Contra war may have been among the factors leading to Ortega's apparent shift in position. Moreover, American policy may play an important role in determining whether a democratic regime emerges in Nicaragua.
Ortega certainly made all the right noises at the meeting of the Central American presidents. However, I do not think that he has suddenly become a convert to democracy, and I believe that he still hates the United States. When he recently told Flora Lewis of the New York Times that his earlier statements that the Sandinistas would never surrender the revolution meant only that they would not permit a return to a Somocista regime, that contradicted the Sandinista regime's conduct of politics in Nicaragua.
On the other hand, Ortega did agree to release Contra prisoners, to permit political parties to organize and campaign, to make legislative reforms, and to accept new elections.
Although less than decisive, these are important concessions. However, official international verification was not accepted. Although appeals to the Inter-American Judicial Commission are possible, the probability that an edict of this tribunal would prove effective is minimal.
Why did Ortega make these concessions? Part of the answer lies in the Honduran pledge to eliminate the Contra camps and in the promise of the other Central American republics not to assist the Contras. Another part of the answer lies in the knowledge that President Reagan's policies so reinforced the criterion of democracy in Nicaragua as a minimum satisfaction of his administration's demands that anything less would have ensured continued American opposition. And Ortega is hoping, as a number of his statements make clear, that President Bush will accept an opportunity to pull back from President Reagan's support of the Contras.
However, the most significant reason must be found in Mikhail Gorbachev's current course. He has no funds to spare for Nicaragua, which is an economic basket case with an astronomical inflation rate. And he wants, for many reasons, to improve relations with the United States. Moreover, there is a widespread belief in Nicaragua that Sandinista economic policies are at least as responsible as the war for the economic debacle. This perception severely reduces internal support for the Sandinistas and makes it urgent that they obtain breathing space and external help.
Thus, Ortega has no option except to play for time. Ortega's strategy may involve a reprise of his original strategy when the Sandinistas seized power and they promised political democracy. The initial revolutionary
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