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Vietnam's Future Role
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16291 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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3 / 1989 |
2,180 Words |
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J. Andre Sauvageot
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Perhaps the most critical single factor in determining the nature of Vietnam's future role in Southeast Asia is what type of "end game" it will play in Cambodia--that is, whether there ever will be any kind of sharply defined denouement. To date, the seeming intractability of the Cambodian situation is a function of mutually irreconcilable threat perceptions between China and Vietnam, Thailand and Vietnam, and the Khmer Rouge of Cambodian communists and Vietnam. China's fear of the Soviet Union and its resentment of Vietnamese independence have been contributing factors. These strong fears and hatreds, derived from both historical and contemporary events, were the prime motives behind the Khmer Rouge attacks on Vietnam in 1976-77, Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia, and China's strong backing of the Khmer Rouge against Vietnam, including its 1979 attack on Vietnam.
Other countries also have interests that will play a role in determining how the Cambodian drama unfolds. However, these interests are less salient. The other ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian nations) countries, the United Nations, Japan, and the Soviet Union have chosen sides in accordance with a complex web of perceived national interests. Countries whose threat perceptions are not congruent may cooperate on the same side. For example, Indonesia may not feel that Vietnamese control of Cambodia represents a threat and may even welcome a strong Vietnam as a buffer against China. However, whatever Indonesia's perception of the threat may be, Jakarta also has a strong interest in maintaining ASEAN solidarity on any question concerning Thailand's and Singapore's strong national security interests.
Considering the factors behind the situation in Cambodia, it follows that if they remain essentially the same, a stalemate could continue indefinitely. Should this happen, we can easily surmise Vietnam's future role in the region by looking at the role it has played since its unification in 1975.
Pluses And Minuses
Because Vietnam's ASEAN neighbors and China, with the support of the United States, are severely restricting their economic and political relationships with Vietnam, Hanoi's regional role is sharply limited. From Vietnam's perspective, its occupation of Cambodia enhances its security in the region by shifting its border problems from its Cambodian border to its Thai border. It has ensured a friendly government in Cambodia, thereby denying access to Cambodia primarily by China and secondarily by Thailand. On the other hand, Vietnam's protracted occupation of Cambodia has resulted in a long list of negative effects. Most of these concern Vietnam's inability to develop economically, a function of regional resistance of its occupation of Cambodia. Isolated by its neighbors, Hanoi has been locked into an uncomfortable dependence on the Soviet Union.
Whatever the effects on itself, Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia has had a number of unintentionally benign results for other countries. For example, it has enhanced China's relationship with ASEAN and permitted Beijing to forge an especially close relationship with Bangkok. It has strengthened ASEAN's political cohesion and reduced these countries' concern with China as a threat. It has provided the United States with a low-cost, low-risk opportunity to enhance its presence in Southeast Asia after a sharp decline following the 1975 denouement in Vietnam. At the same time, the Soviet Union has gained great
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