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Taiwan: On Avoiding a Potential Quagmire
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14732 |
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EDITORIAL
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11 / 1988 |
682 Words |
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Morton A. Kaplan
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The next fifteen years will be crucial for relations between China and Taiwan, on the one hand, and China and the United States, on the other. Richard Sorich raises some of the relevant issues in his commentary "Taiwan Unfreezes Its Mainland China policy." But even he fails to note how serious these matters are. If all three parties do not act constructively or wisely, events could occur that could cause deep trouble between China and the United States.
Political processes in Taiwan are moving the island toward a genuinely democratic governmental structure. Americans can only applaud this transformation, for it is in accord with our deepest political values. The great majority of Taiwanese citizens—who are descended from earlier mainland emigrants and who do not have the attachment to the mainland that characterizes those who arrived in 1948 and 1949—eventually will take control of the government. If they fear that their independence might be compromised by the mainland, they are likely to declare Taiwan a separate republic. The United States would have little choice, given our values, but to recognize the legitimacy of their democratic self-determination. But this would be completely unacceptable to the mainland Chinese, who are determined to unite China, legitimately (given their values).
Such an outcome would be a tragedy for us, for China, and for the people of Taiwan. It is important, therefore, to arrive at a solution that will preclude such a crisis before the chain of events makes it difficult or impossible to avoid tragedy. Statesmanship of a high caliber is required.
With fear and trembling, I shall attempt to sketch a possible solution. I think Taiwan and the Peoples' Republic should sign a treaty that recognizes the unity of China and which specifies that a unified government would come into being when the people on the mainland and in Taiwan, separately and in the absence of force or the threat of force, vote to unify China. Each party to the treaty would pledge not to engage in either economic or military attacks upon the other and would agree to offer such assistance as is feasible when the other is subject to attack or undue pressure. This treaty should not contain language that challenges the legitimacy of either party, for no matter how legitimate such criticism might be in principle, it would preclude agreement.
Even these albeit preliminary steps would remove the rationale for the proclamation of an independent second China and indeed would oblige Taiwan not to take that course. In addition, should Taiwan declare the independence of a second China without the other party's having violated the agreement, such a declaration would be illegitimate.
Further steps would encourage an eventual and voluntary unification. I would encourage the parties to create a flag that would include their present-day flags within its framework, without giving either an inferior position. The Peoples' Republic should act to restore the membership of Taiwan in the United Nations. After all, even the Ukraine and Byelorussia are members. China should withdraw its opposition to Taiwan's membership in other international organizations and to her diplomatic representation abroad.
There should be regular meetings between the two governments to discuss matters that affect China as a whole. The Peoples' Republic might even
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