While the American public was celebrating summer's end with shopping, picnics, or a last trek to the shore, the two presidential tickets spent Labor Day unveiling what lies in store through November 8. And if the holiday sneak preview gives a true picture, the remainder of the presidential campaign boils down to a fight over two states, a regional "belt," and one candidate's personality.
Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis spent the first Monday in September barnstorming across the Rustbelt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, with an additional stop in the swing state of Missouri. Republican nominee George Bush traveled up and down the coast of California. Dukakis' running mate, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, spent the day deep in the heart of his native Texas. Bentsen's Republican counterpart, Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle, traveled to New York's Liberty Island where, in the shadow of the Statue of Liberty, he once again assailed Dukakis for vetoing a bill requiring Massachusetts schoolchildren to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
After taking a long look at the dynamics of this election and their candidates' strengths and weaknesses, voters can surely expect to see more of the same style of campaigning until November 8. The Dukakis campaign, for example, spent August looking at polls indicating that the Democratic ticket leads in New York, trails in Texas, and runs even in California. If, indeed, Dukakis trails in Texas—and the conservative Bentsen was chosen to secure Texas' 29 electoral votes—then the Democratic nominee must win most, if not all, of the populous Rustbelt, which includes Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois. The prospects of a clean sweep across the Rustbelt are all the more difficult since Dukakis must also pay attention to Texas, California, and other swing states such as Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Washington, Louisiana, and Delawere.
The role Bentsen will play in this election is to make some of the toss-up states more winnable for Dukakis. Besides his obvious strength in Texas, where he defeated Bush in a 1970 race for the U.S. Senate, Bentsen could win votes across the rest of the Oilbelt—Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. However, Bentsen has little impact beyond those states, which explains why he will confine his appearances to the Oilbelt and Washington, D.C.
Given the Republican Party's built-in advantage in the South and the West, the Bush campaign has a different strategy in mind. In private, Bush strategists suggest their candidate has control of approximately 150 electoral votes, 30 more than his opponent (the winner needs 270 electoral votes). This scenario includes Texas and Florida going to Bush and New York to the Democrats, with California and much of the Midwest up for grabs. It therefore comes as little surprise that Bush kicked off his campaign in California, whose 47 electoral votes are a virtual must for Dukakis.
Quayle, on the other hand, will wage a campaign based more on style than substance, Since the 41-year-old senator and vice presidential nominee hails from a rock-ribbed Republican state, he will be used as a vehicle for attacking Dukakis. In the weeks following his surprise appearance on the GOP ticket, Quayle has taken out after Dukakis on two issues: the pledge and national security. What the Bush campaign hopes to achieve through Quayle's efforts is a portrait of an opponent straight out of the mold of past candidates Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter, and George
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