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Taiwan Unfreezes Its Mainland China Policy
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14711 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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11 / 1988 |
2,077 Words |
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Richard Sorich
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The apparent thaw in Sino-Soviet relations that has been emerging over the past few years is prompting Taiwan to reassess its own policies vis-à-vis the People's Republic of China (PRC) and move toward constructive engagement and away from its past "three noes" stance.
The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the possibility that the Soviet Union may cut support for Vietnam's presence in Cambodia will largely satisfy two of the three preconditions that the PRC has set for the normalization of Sino-Soviet relations. The other precondition, reducing the number of Soviet divisions deployed along the Sino-Soviet border, is a lesser problem that already has been addressed in small part by the Soviets.
This trend means the PRC has more freedom to turn its attention to other national priorities at home and abroad, including reunification with Taiwan. If the PRC feels less threatened by the Soviet Union, its need to rely on U.S. support and protection will be reduced. Correspondingly, the PRC may no longer feel the need to respect U.S. foreign policies and priorities. Furthermore, détente in U.S.-Soviet relations makes the United States a much less eager suitor for the PRC's helping hand in the strategic battle with the Soviet Union. Without the ravening Soviet bear pressing the attack, the United States has only a marginal interest in the PRC, compared to the time not long ago when "PRC assets" were seen as a part of the U.S. struggle for national survival.
In other words, the United States and the PRC need each other less, and both are not such intense enemies of the Soviet Union as they once were.
With respect to Taiwan, there will be less need for the PRC to exercise caution and moderation on the issue of reunification, at least insofar as the PRC has acted this way to avoid spoiling relations with the United States. Nor will the PRC need to be so concerned about its northern flank were it to become engaged in a Taiwan military venture.
Taiwan's response to this dangerously changing and fluid situation seems to be constructive engagement with the PRC in place of its traditional militant us-versus-the-enemy attitude and its national mission to "recover the mainland." The constructive engagement program has been accompanied by a strong reassertion of the Taiwan regime's opposition to the Taiwan independence movement, whose aim is to set up a sovereign Taiwan not bound to mainland China. Any sign of growing sentiment for Taiwan independence sets the Beijing leadership on edge. More than anything else, momentum toward Taiwan independence could provoke the use of force by Beijing, especially during a time when the PRC feels it can exercise greater freedom of action.
Quickening the pace
Taiwan's new policy of constructive engagement is designed to fit the needs of the changing strategic situation. As long as events were moving in the right direction, Beijing has been fairly patient about reunification. Taiwan has adroitly quickened the pace and scope of mainland relations just enough to offset the effects of recent developments that might otherwise have set Beijing to thinking about stern measures to step up the pace of reunification.
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