Every presidential election is a referendum on the mood of America, and the 1988 contest between Republican George Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis is no exception. When all is said and done, and it will be, finally, on November 8, the American people will be casting a vote either for continuity or change. Vice President Bush believes that the last eight years have produced international peace and domestic prosperity of such a magnitude that he will win a mandate for more of the same. Governor Dukakis believes that so many Americans have been left out of the prosperity and are so concerned about the mistakes and worse in foreign polity that they will vote for a new direction.
Who will win? Most experts say it will be one of the closest races in recent history, rivaling perhaps the razor-thin Kennedy-Nixon contest of 1960. They agree that in addition to capitalizing on the mood of the electorate, the winner will be the candidate who handles most successfully the four basic elements of a political campaign: organization, money, issues, and the media.
In this month's Special Report, THE WORLD & I looks at how Bush and Dukakis are doing and who is likely to cross the finish line first.
Political reporter Bill Whalen concludes that Bush, while promising to continue the Reagan legacy in foreign affairs, is trying to build a broader coalition by emphasizing the environment and what he calls " a more caring government." He is ahead in such key states as Florida and Texas and running even in the most important state of all, California. If elected president, Whalen points out, Bush would be the first incumbent vice president since Martin van Buren in 1832 to accomplish the feat. Dukakis, meanwhile, is either a one-man crusade to shift the Democratic Party to the center or just one more tax-and-spend liberal. His chances of victory depend in large measure on which image he projects and whether he can warm up his usual "ice-man" demeanor. If Dukakis can stay on the offensive and not be offensive, he may wind up as the first Greek-American in the White House.
As for the new administration, Professor Gerald Pomper of Rutgers University examines the past and present ideologies of the two major parties for clues as to what their candidates might do if elected. He concludes that there are more similarities than differences on many issues, domestic and foreign, but that there is a basic difference in emphasis: Republicans will reluctantly use government "to increase opportunities for private action," while Democrats will use government "sooner and principally to promote a social goal." Either man will have to deal with what Susan D. Sullivan of Georgetown University calls "the untouchable Congress." Independent-minded, budget-conscious legislators have transformed Congress in the 1980s. Comments Sullivan: "Electorally secure and politically savvy, they will be a very demanding group in the 1990s" for either President Bush or President Dukakis.
A unique feature of our Special Report is a survey of how the Soviet Union, Western Europe, and Asia view the U.S. elections. The Soviets lean toward Democrat Dukakis, but remember that the greatest breakthroughs in arms control and East-West trade have come under Republicans. Western Europeans have grown to admire Ronald Reagan, while most Asians prefer continuity to change. The final look at Campaign '88 is offered by political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who surveys the key
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