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Postwar Iraq: Regional Power or Pariah?
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13841 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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12 / 1988 |
2,489 Words |
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Christine Moss Helms
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Iraqi political behavior can be understood only within the context of its geostrategic concerns and with the knowledge that Iraqis are fully cognizant of, if perplexed by, Western preoccupation with Iran.
The memory of Iran's Islamic revolutionary involvement in global terrorism has been all but erased in the feverish embrace with which the West greeted Iran's sudden acceptance in July of UN Resolution 598, which provides for a negotiated settlement of the Iran-Iraq War, and the emergent leadership of a "moderate," Hashemi Rafsanjani. France, Britain, and Kuwait hastened to normalize diplomatic relations with Iran, which had never ceased to be touted in the West as the unquestioned strategic prize and in the region as a power to be placated. Hesitation on the part of the United States to follow suit is attributed to its desire to be perceived as chaste maid, rather than ardent suitor, because of its own domestic pressures.
The passion of the West's embrace, however, is disproportionate. Rafsanjani has long been an active, influential member of Ayataollah Ruhollah Khomeini's inner circle, clouding assertions about his moderation. The motives and latent intent of Iran's mercurial conversion from implacable stands have yet to be subjected to scrutiny. Iranian domestic stability in the next decade remains no less tenuous. Factors contributing to the instability of the shah's regime in the 1970s have yet to be addressed in the 1980s. Wile 97 percent of its population is Shi'ite Muslim and speaks Farsi, Iran has numerous fissiparous tendencies disguised by an unexamined assumption that, unlike its Arab neighbors, it has always been united as a natural geopolitical entity.
Iraq stands in contrast. After eight years of war—with its financial reserves depleted, no less than 70,000 men dead, some 50,000 in captivity, and thousands more severely maimed—Iraq has weathered the storm against all predictions. Laudably achieving major infrastructural development while fighting the war, Iraq's full potential is still untapped. Its strategic location, renewable water supplies, extensive oil reserves, manpower, capacity to diversify its economic base, and ability to absorb an educated population endow it with an unprecedented combination of assets relative to other regional countries.
Only Syria and Egypt in the Arab world can be considered Iraq's overall rivals. Yet, so radical is Syria's posture of late that its sole redeeming character is as a conduit to return freed Western hostages. It remains hopelessly mired in Lebanon, and its oil and water supplies are not comparable to those of Iraq. Egypt has the greatest cultural clout, but it is unable to provide essential domestic services and will become a net importer of energy in the 1990s. It has no plans to ameliorate these problems except solicitation of foreign aid.
Among non-Arab countries bordering the Middle East, Turkey has water but a paucity of energy resources. Prospects for Iran remain in doubt because of constraints daily more apparent.
Considerable speculation therefore must gravitate to the projected role to which Iraq will aspire in the Middle East and the global energy market in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq war. Middle Easterners themselves are acutely aware that environmental and historical advantages alone increasingly impart to Iraq strength and resiliency
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