After Suharto, who? This seems the logical question. In March, Suharto--to no one's surprise--was reelected, unopposed, to an unprecedented fifth five-year term as president of Indonesia. In 1993, when that term ends, he will be 72 and will have been in power for 27 years. Inevitably, then, succession questions arise.
Beyond who, however, the more central question is what? And then how and when? Upon more thoughtful consideration one would ask to what degree is personality involved? And to what extent has institutionalization of the new order (as the regime calls itself) taken place? All these questions subsume Suharto's basic dilemma: how to preserve the New Order's remarkable stability while acknowledging the need for change.
Readily visible strains on the system come from many directions. Oil and gas are Indonesia's main exports. But the OPEC-driven joyride has ended, forcing the government to cut domestic spending, devalue the rupiah, and increase foreign debt. The demographics are formidable: With a population of more than 176 million, Indonesia is the world's fifth most populous country. Indonesians live on a string of islands that, if superimposed on the United States, would extend from the Pacific Ocean west of Oregon to some 200 miles east of Savannah, Georgia, but that have a combined land area slightly smaller than that of Alaska plus California.
Despite Suharto's active support for family planning, by the early 21st century Indonesia's population will be the fourth largest in the world. Currently, more than 40 percent of Indonesians are younger than 15.
The central government's ability to live up to the national motto ("Unity in Diversity") is being tested: Groups in East Timor and West Irian demand autonomy, and fundamentalist Muslims resent living in a heterodox society under a non-Islamic state. Human rights critics denounce, among other things, alleged widespread patterns of torture and abuse in jails, recent legislation limiting social organizations and, perhaps most important, the Indonesian government's lack of response to these and other charges. For some insiders, corruption may be said to be a way of life and business. Prioritas, a relatively new, bold daily newspaper, was closed for making speculative reports the government said could cause unrest. In some instances critical foreign journalists have been expelled or been denied renewal visas.
The political opposition's recent tactics--unusually open by Indonesian standards--of forcing votes on key measures under discussion in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) and challenging Suharto's choice for vice president, suggest restiveness and a desire for a more widely effective democratic voice. So, too, does the unexpected enthusiasm the memory of the late President Sukarno evoked among the young during last year's election campaign. December's student riots in Ujung Pandang, the capital of South Sulawesi, protesting laws requiring helmets for motorcyclists, may reflect deeper frustration with stringent government regulations banning political activity on campuses.
Focusing solely on such a cumulative picture, one could conclude that Suharto heads a repressive, totalitarian military government and that Indonesia is nearing explosion. The facile international metaphorists, however, who liken Indonesia to a Philippines-, Korea-,
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