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Chad: Requiem for Qaddafi?
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13579 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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4 / 1988 |
3,626 Words |
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Michael Radu and Adam Garfinkle
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One year ago in these pages (April 1987, pp. 114-8), we analyzed the surprising developments in the Libyan-Chadian war in the wake of the Chadian victory at the Fada oasis in January of last year. We made a number of points and a few predictions.
First, Chadian successes promised to create a Chadian nationalism in response to the Libyan threat, which has heretofore been very weak. Such a development would be the best protection against future Libyan designs against Chadian sovereignty, for only because of Chadian infighting have Libyan expansionist efforts scored any successes at all. Second, other Sahelian states threatened by Libya, notably Niger but also the Sudan and the Central African Republic, might take heart from Chadian bravery and resolve anew to resist Libyan advances. Third, the military aspects of the war proved that sophisticated military hardware in the hands of ill- or mistrained and poorly motivated soldiers is no match against motivated, mobile forces even if they are lightly armed and outnumbered. Forth, U.S.-French cooperation in helping the Chadians during the Fada campaign was noteworthy in and of itself. It is also a precedent of other African contingencies where French forces are maintained and where the United States has an interest. Finally, we predicted that if the French released themselves from their self-imposed restraint in not helping the Chadians beyond the 16th parallel, the expulsion of Libyan forces from Chad and the disputed Aouzou strip was a likely prospect.
Developments throughout 1987 confirmed our analysis. The year also brought new twists in the war, particularly in its Franco U.S. aspects. As the war became protracted, other countries were drawn into its vortex. Between the battle at Fada in January 1987 and the battles of late summer past, the Libyan-Chadian war had become a major regional issue.
Plot against Qaddafi?
After Fada, heavy fighting ebbed as each side prepared itself for the next round. For the Libyans, this was particularly difficult. Much dissension in the Libyan military over the Chadian adventure was evidenced, and some of it was channeled into an Islamic fundamentalist plot against Qaddafi's regime. In February, Libyan television carried live the execution of nine dissidents who were supposedly members of an organization called Holy War. Three were in the military, and admitted to plotting the assassination of Soviet military advisors in Libya with other, unapprehended comrades.
The Chadians, newly stocked with captured Soviet weapons, were more eager to resume the war, with the aim of expelling the Libyans from their territory. Prosecuting the war was also a means to consolidate the new alliance between President Hissen Habre and the followers of Goukouni Oueddei and other former rebels and renegades. Chadian enthusiasm, as well as the thinly veiled racial dimension to the war, was reflected in a Chadian news broadcast (reported by Foreign Broadcast Information Service) that said "The Chadian National Armed Forces are determined to put an end to the whimsical acts of the Libyan slave-traders in the occupied territories."
But the French, upon whom Chad depends for logistical aid, restrained the Chadians. The public attitude in Paris was that the Aouzou problem was a border dispute that should be submitted to international arbitration. (Some pressure on
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