Democracy, that most fragile of political systems, is still alive and surprisingly well in South America. Of the 12 independent nations in the southern half of the Western Hemisphere, eight are free while another four are partly free, according to Freedom House's annual survey. The State Department points out that only two military-style regimes, in Chile and Paraguay, remain on a continent long stereotyped for its juntas and caudillos.
However, serious political, economic, and social problems continue to confront governments from Argentina to Venezuela. Will the people of first one country and then another tire of democracy's penchant for debate and consensus, even in a crisis, and turn once again to a uniformed man on a white horse? What are the prospects for political and economic freedom in an area critical to the future of the United States and the free world?
In this month's Special Report, Latin American expert Roger Fontaine points out that during the Reagan years, not one democratically elected government in South America has been overthrown by the military. "No other U.S. administration in modern times," he says, "can make that claim." But he goes on to list the formidable challenges facing almost every nation, ranging from a drug-oriented economy in Colombia to political gridlock in Brazil, and he concludes that until South America solves its severe economic problems, it will continue to be plagued by serious political uncertainties.
Lt. Gen. Gordon Sumner, Jr. (USA-Ret.), former head of the Inter-American Defense Board, examines the myths and realities of the military's role in South America, stressing that in almost every country there has been a "significant group of military dedicated to political and social change." He argues that U.S. military programs have helped to bring a "firsthand knowledge of American-style democracy" to the southern continent. Echoing Fontaine, Sumner states that the key question is whether the people of South America "will be willing to stay the course" and allow the civilian leadership the necessary time to solve the overwhelming economic problems.
Contrary to widespread opinion, declares analyst Robert Royal of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, liberation theology does not dominate the Catholic Church in South America. While conceding that there are large leftist followings in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and elsewhere, Royal says that strong "countercurrents have also emerged." These countercurrents have been assisted by the general democratization of South America, which has undercut the assertions of liberation theologians that only revolution can improve the political and economic life of the continent. Royal argues that new cultural initiatives, led by intellectuals like Octavio Paz of Mexico and Mario Vargas Llosa of Peru, "coupled with increasing support for democracy by the church" may give South America critical momentum to develop the political and economic institutions it urgently needs.
The Special Report ends with firsthand reports from three key countries--Argentina, Venezuela, and Chile. Analyst Vladimir Chelminski says that inflation has nearly destroyed "the numerous and vigorous middle class" that flourished in Venezuela for three decades. Now, an enormous bureaucracy and a "tangled jungle of laws" threaten to destroy private enterprise. Chelminski declares that the new president who will be elected in December 1988 must take swift and strong action to
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