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'Yellow Light' for U.S. Arms Sales to China
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14616 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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5 / 1988 |
2,886 Words |
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Martin L. Lasater
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It is in the strategic interests of the United States to have friendly military, as well as political, economic, and cultural relations with the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, the arms sales and defense technology transfer aspects of Sino-American military relations need to be carefully and continuously reassessed to ensure that U.S. interests are being served.
As indicated by the recent controversy over China's sale of Silkworm antiship missiles to Iran, there may be occasions when Chinese and American interests collide. More of these occasions may occur in the future as the PRC strengthens its role in world affairs and as its military becomes a more credible instrument of national power. Prudence dictates that the United States pursue a cautious policy in selling arms to China. This is particularly true in an era of improving Sino-Soviet relations, when China's military arsenal may be focused less on the diminishing Soviet threat and more on achieving Chinese ambitions elsewhere in Asia.
Military relations with the PRC are in the U.S. national interest for three basic reasons. First, China is one of the world's leading powers and its strength will likely grow considerably over the next few decades. As such, the United States must deal realistically with Beijing. Normal state-to-state relations generally include a military component, and it would send a disagreeable signal to the Chinese if that component were excluded from Sino-American relations.
Second, although Sino-Soviet relations are improving, China is Moscow's largest and most powerful neighbor. As such, the Kremlin always takes into consideration China's strength and policy direction. It is in U.S. interests that China be independent from Moscow, and that means the PRC must be able to deter a Soviet attack. Some U.S. military assistance to Beijing is justified to strengthen China's deterrence and to complicate Soviet war plans.
Third, Beijing has proven in Tibet, Korea, Vietnam, India, along the Sino-Soviet border, and against offshore islands controlled by Taiwan that the PRC will use its military instrument to achieve political objectives. To some indeterminable extent, having a military relationship with the PRC may enable the United States to influence Beijing's policies and the nature of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). At minimum, the United States is able to acquire more information about the PLA through an ongoing program of cooperation than would be the case otherwise.
Limitations
Just as there are sound reasons to maintain a military relationship with the PRC, so there are constraints on that relationship. At least five limitations are important to note.
First, it is impossible for the United States to modernize the PLA through arms sales and other defense cooperation. It has been estimated that over $50 billion in U.S. weapons would have to be sold to the PRC to enable that country to defeat a Soviet invasion. Congress would never approve $50 billion in military sales to China, nor would the Pentagon wish to deplete its stocks to the extent necessary to equip the PLA. Furthermore, the Chinese soldier lacks the education and training necessary to use and maintain the high-tech equipment used by the United
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