As worker strikes follow student demonstrations and opposition politicians apply increasing pressure, observers in and out of the Republic of Korea are asking: Can South Korea make the difficult political transition from authoritarian state to representative democracy? Whether and how the ROK succeeds is important to countries like the Philippines and the Republic of China, which are engaged in similar political transitions, and to the four major powers that are strategically and economically involved with South Korea - the United States, the Soviet Union, China, and Japan.
THE WORLD & I asked leading U.S. and Korean authorities to examine the topic "Crisis and Democracy in South Korea." Their guarded conclusion is that the Republic of Korea has the necessary political will and economic strength to become a constitutional democracy if the required political leadership is developed and allowed to take office.
Asian analyst Ray S. Cline cautions that it may not be possible to put together a viable electoral and constitutional system in time for the new president to take office as scheduled in the spring of 1988. President Chun Doo-Hwan, he says, is gambling that by granting most of the opposition's demands, his chosen successor, Roh Tae-Woo, will become popular enough to win an honest election.
Choi Sung-Il, executive director of the Korean Institute for Human Rights and a longtime adviser to opposition leader Kim Dae-Jung, argues that the key to democracy in South Korea is to "immunize Korean society and politics to the imperatives of Cold War politics." The best way to accomplish that, he says, is to restore local autonomy at all levels of government. This development will assist the return of moderation, tolerance, and patience, the "often overlooked Confucian elements that constitute the democratic temperament."
Selig S. Harrison, senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, asserts that the fundamental requisite for democratic change in South Korea is the withdrawal of the armed forces from the political arena and their complete neutrality toward the political process. He believes that the nature of the political structure is less important than "whether elections for all branches of the government are conducted fairly."
With regard to relations between the two Koreas, Daryl Plunk, visiting fellow in Asian affairs at the Heritage Foundation, concludes that the vast social differences between the two countries make significant progress toward reunification unlikely for several decades.
Mike Breen, special correspondent for the Washington Times based in Seoul, South Korea, reports that despite the size and impact of the student demonstrations, only 5 percent of Korea's one million students are active in the antigovernment protest movement. Most of the protesting students are not ideologically motivated but simply seek an end to antidemocratic rule. He adds, however, that the student movement is led by the more radical elements.
Of the future, veteran foreign correspondent Edward Neilan asserts that the political turbulence of 1987 "supports rather than detracts" from the argument that South Korea's vitality promises a strong and positive tomorrow. Neilan, who first began covering Korea in 1957,
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