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Beneath the Surface of Iran's Relations with the West
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13133 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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11 / 1987 |
2,563 Words |
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Shireen Hunter
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In the last few months, Iran's relations with the West have taken a sharp turn for the worse. Iran and France have broken diplomatic relations; diplomatic representation between Iran and Britain has been reduced to the lowest level; and Iran and the United States were moving toward a political and military confrontation in the Persian Gulf. This followed the U.S. decision to reflag 11 Kuwaiti tankers and offer them military protection, which is leading to a massive buildup of U.S. naval power in the region.
Meanwhile, as Iran's relations with the West have deteriorated, Soviet-Iranian relations have dramatically improved. Following several trips by Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Yuli Vorontsov to Tehran and his Iranian counterpart to Moscow, in the last few months the two countries seem to have achieved far-reaching agreements. If implemented, these would link the Iranian economy closely to that of the Soviet Union and would increase Iran's economic and, thus, to a great extent, political dependence on the USSR.
These agreements would include the following: exporting up to one-third of Iran's oil through the Soviet Union by converting an existing gas pipelines from Iran to the Soviet Union into an oil pipeline; the building of a second gas pipeline from Iran to the Soviet Union, which would principally feed Soviet Armenia; the building of a railroad that would link the USSR to the Persian Gulf through Iran; joint exploration for oil in the Caspian Sea; plus a number of smaller projects such as dam building on the border rivers as well as cooperation on several industrial and energy-related projects.
More important, the Soviet Union and Iran have expressed their common views regarding the political and military situation in the Persian Gulf and have called for the withdrawal of all foreign military forces from the region. Since the Soviet military presence in the Persian Gulf has traditionally been much smaller than that of the West, and in view of the recent American naval buildup in the region, this position clearly favors the USSR. As a result, the overall political atmosphere of Soviet-Iranian relations, which at times had been highly acrimonious, has greatly improved. This improvement has been so significant that there have even been rumors that the Soviet Union and Iran may sign a friendship treaty similar to the ones that the USSR already has with India, Syria, and Iraq.
Given the above, the following questions inevitably arise: Why has this sudden deterioration in Iranian-Western relations taken place? Has it been principally caused by internal developments in Iran and, in particular, the shifting of balance of power among rival tendencies within Iran? Does it prove that given the ideological mindset of Iran's current leaders, there can be no meaningful reconciliation between Iran and the West? Or does it also illustrate the West's ambivalence in regard to dealing with Iran, a change of heart about the usefulness of establishing a dialogue with that country?
No doubt all these have been involved. But the current situation in both Iran and the West is also a fallout of the Iran-Contra affair.
Iran-Contra fallout
When the news of secret dealings between Iran and the United States was first leaked in the
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