President Reagan is considered to be a very political animal, and yet he has flunked the political test on one of the key issues of his administration: building a strong consensus for his position on the conflict in Central America. Even as peace talks get under way in the region, most Americans still don't know what the conflict there is all about or just how much is at stake. Thus, they have no idea how unlikely the current talks are to bring a solution to the problems of the region.
This state of affairs has arisen in large part because, even after all these years, the administration, its allies in Congress and outside, and the Nicaraguan resistance movement itself, still have not grasped - or learned to deal adequately with - the fact that the conflict over Central America is above all else political. Moreover, much of it is not even taking place in Central America. Critical battles have been fought, and often lost - or ignored altogether - in the World Court, the byways of the Third World, the halls of the U.S. Congress, and the editorial pages of the world's daily newspapers.
Lacking a strong consensus on the Central American conflict, the administration has had to turn to unreliable, inadequate, and perhaps illegal funding. Policies have been born to squirm or die, blown by the winds of prejudice and by uninformed and constantly shifting public opinion.
By way of contrast, the Sandinistas and their Cuban allies know a political battle when they see one, and despite some stupid moves in the past, they have made their case much more consistently and successfully throughout the world.
Now, for the moment at least, the initiative has passed to a third party, the five Central American governments themselves. Moves toward peace talks began almost five years ago, but no seemingly productive break came until August 1987, when a summit of Central American presidents, initiated by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, signed a peace accord in Guatemala.
Why does there seem to be movement just now? In part because the Guatemalan plan is the first initiative developed by Central American leaders themselves, and in part because it focuses on only three of many problems, leaving the rest - including some fundamental security matters, such as the critical imposition of sanctions - for later. These three are: (1) a cease-fire in each Central American conflict, primarily those involving Nicaragua and El Salvador; (2)an end to outside aid for all guerrilla movements; and (3)the opening up of political systems in the region. The whole program is to begin on November 7.
But the new movement toward peace also reflects changing conditions in the region. In Nicaragua, these include continuing deterioration of the economy, where inflation is now about 1,000 percent; rising domestic disillusionment with the government; and Sandinista concern over recent military successes by the resistance forces. Also, as Nicaraguan Defense Minister Humberto Ortega himself said in early August, the Sandinistas maintain that the United States now has all its forces in places to overthrow the Sandinistas and is only waiting for the right opportunity to launch an invasion. In short, the Sandinistas are in trouble.
For their part, the other Central
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