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How Qaddafi's Indirect Strategy Is Working
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12503 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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7 / 1987 |
3,741 Words |
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Avigdor Haselkorn
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In the wake of recent defeats suffered by Libyan forces in Chad, speculation has mounted over the likely impact on Muammar Qaddafi's continued hold on power. For example, analysts have pointed out that the Libyan leader has recently reshuffled his "cabinet" and even publicly executed nine persons, including a corporal and two privates, on charges of plotting to kill Soviet personnel. Intelligence sources were quoted as saying desertions from the Libyan armed forces in Chad were increasing at an "alarming rate." A Libyan military unit was said to have refused to deploy in Chad.
The debacle will likely produce strong reaction among the Libyan military. Moreover, it is indicative of the sort of problem Chad has created for Qaddafi that his military commanders were reported to restrict contacts between soldiers and their families in a bid to keep Libyan casualties secret.
The ill-fated invasion of Chad has also tarnished Qaddafi's revolutionary image. The Libyans were defeated by a local army that was vastly outnumbered and outgunned. The Libyan "tactical withdrawal" had the earmarks of another Arab army fleeing for its life in the Middle East, abandoning in the process large quantities of advanced weaponry (apparently including a Soviet-supplied SA-10 battery) intact and ready for use. Without question, Qaddafi's credibility in the Third World has been dealt a severe blow.
Should Qaddafi survive this crisis, what possible adverse consequences might he face? In Qaddafi's mind Chad was only the latest in a string of "imperialist plots" to demolish this revolution and its message, and to eliminate him personally. As he said to the international conference on terrorism that convened in Geneva on March 20, 1987:
Libya is now being terrorized from the south after the use of terror against it from the north failed - undertaken by two states [America and France] which are members of the [UN] Security Council and supposed to be responsible for world peace....This happened after America and Britain, with the help of Spain and Italy, had conducted terrorism against Libya from the north.
Indeed, in the wake of the Chad humiliation, it could be expected that Washington and Paris would be repeatedly blamed for the Libyan armed forces' misfortune. However, as Qaddafi is keenly aware of his country's vulnerabilities against this "unholy alliance," as well as the enormous disparity in power involved, he has resorted to an "indirect strategy": increase the costs to all countries opposing Libya, without necessarily engaging them directly. This approach is also designed to distract Libya's enemies and force them to divert resources to other theatres, enhancing in the process Libyan security and freedom of action. The collapse of the direct option in Chad implicitly reaffirms the attractiveness of Qaddafi's indirect approach, or so the Libyan leader may conclude.
Moreover, in an effort to deter further imperialist pressures, Qaddafi has increasingly threatened to formalize Tripoli's "very friendly relations" with the USSR by joining the Warsaw Pact. In the aftermath of the U.S. bombing of Libya, Qaddafi told the participants of the eighth Nonaligned Summit in Harare, Zimbabwe, that nonalignment was dead. The "liberation forces" are currently required to develop ties to the socialist states, he said. The Libyan leader announced that
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