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Syrian Missiles: Shifting Balance in the Middle East
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12351 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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1 / 1987 |
3,039 Words |
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Avigdor Haselkorn
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Numerous recent reports indicate that the Soviet Union has agreed to supply Syria with SS-23 Spider short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). The Syrians are also known to possess mobile shorter-range SS-21 Scarab surface-to-surface missiles (SSMs), first introduced in September 1983. Although Syria received its first Frog-7 surface-to-surface rockets in 1972, followed by the SS-1C Scud-B missiles, the recent Soviet upgrading of the Syrian arsenal represents much more than a numerical expansion. In fact, the new additions come at a time when the Soviets are radically shifting their views on the use of these weapons as instruments of theater warfare.
Today Syria is credited with a force of more than 120 SS-21, Frog-7 and SS-1C missiles in its inventory. These are intended for use by three recently reorganized SSM brigades. The oldest one is the 69th Rocket Brigade, which was formed after the delivery of the first Frog-7s. It now has 18 transport-erector launchers (TELS) and reloaders. Another brigade is equipped with Scud-B missiles with three battalions and 18 launchers. The third brigade is still being organized. It fields two battalions with a total of 12 SS-21 missiles, and a third battalion with six more missile launchers is apparently in formation. Analysts believe that at least some of these units are normally stationed in concrete shelters in the mountains near Damascus and in the Palmyra region. Presumably, the Syrians will form a fourth brigade once the SS-23s arrive.
The reorganization of the Syrian SSM brigades closely follows the Soviet pattern. Soviet Scud brigades were expanded from six to nine launchers during the 1960s and from nine to 12 launchers in the 1970s. Currently, such units deploy 12 to 18 launchers with the higher number representing the addition of another two-launcher battery to each of the brigade's three battalions. Besides increasing the number of launchers available for conventional missions, the expansion is apparently aimed at compensating for the need for reserves to enable a rapid transition from conventional to nuclear warfare. In the case of Syria, the growth in the number of launchers may thus complement the recent introduction of chemical warheads into the Syrian arsenal, a fact which Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres disclosed in August 1986.
Israeli concerns
Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin has responded to the Syrian SSM buildup by suggesting the pattern of war in the Middle East might change drastically in the future. For example, in May 1986, Rabin said:
I do not rule out the possibility that the pattern of future wars will be transformed to include massive attacks against population centers in Israel in addition to limited occupation of territory. This is due to the way that the Arab world perceives our sensitivities, not necessarily to territory but to the loss of human life and the way we perceive the army's mission to protect our rearguard, our homes.
These observations imply an extension of the category of mass destruction weapons in the Middle East. While there is little doubt that both Arabs and Israelis view nuclear and chemical weapons as belonging to a new class of arms, the limits of the mass-destruction category of weapons are not well-defined. It would appear that much depends on the mode of employment, not just the deployment, of certain
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