Pundits tend to describe every presidential election as a "watershed election," but 1988 really is a critical year, for it will bring, as political scientist Gerald Pomper puts it, a generational transfer of leadership, a new agenda for the nation, and a new system of presidential campaigning. Who are the Republicans and Democrats vying to lead the nation into the 1990s? What are the key issues that will dominate the political debate in the coming months? What is the new factor that may well decide the presidential nominations by the first week of March 1988? THE WORLD & I went to leading political analysts for the answers, some of which may surprise even sophisticated observers of American politics.
Analyst Stuart Rothenberg profiles the Republicans, beginning with everybody's front-runner, Vice President George Bush, who is trying to accomplish what such popular politicians as Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, and Walter Mondale were unable to do - move directly into the White House from the vice presidency. His strategy is both simple and difficult: "create his own identity and vision for the country without appearing disloyal to Ronald Reagan." Rothenberg sees Kansas Sen. Robert Dole as Bush's most formidable challenger because of his can-do reputation. But, he adds, "Nobody is quite sure what he wants to do." None of the other serious candidates - former Delaware Gov. Pete du Pont, former Secretary of State Al Haig, New York Rep. Jack Kemp, and television evangelist Pat Robertson - is seen as likely to become the nominee unless both Bush and Dole stumble badly.
With favorite Gary Hart out of the race, every remaining Democrat is now trying mightily to establish himself as number one in the minds and hearts of his fellow Democrats. Sometimes they try too hard, as Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis have demonstrated. Political journalist Don McLeod suggests that it is a little early for definitive predictions, but notes that Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt is showing surprising strength, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore, Jr., is positioning himself as the centrist candidate, and Jesse Jackson is enjoying 92 percent name recognition. For the Democrats, says McLeod, the name of the game is Iowa and New Hampshire. Gephardt must win Iowa, Gore must do well on Super Tuesday (March 8), and Dukakis must take New Hampshire by a convincing margin.
In the realm of issues, Professor Bruce Buchanan, author of The Presidential Experience, argues that the candidates will have to address the changing economic and strategic role of the United States in world affairs. Candidates will also have to spell out what specific steps they intend to take to strengthen the national economy, including the perennial question: to tax or not to tax. Buchanan asserts that the domestic agenda will include AIDS, education, the economic underclass, and the plight of the homeless, as well as the future of welfare and Social Security. He suggests that 1988 will decide "the extent to which compassion and prudence will prevail over self-interest politics in addressing domestic problems."
Political scientist Pomper declares that the real significance of the 1988 presidential election lies not in the electoral horse race between the Republican and Democratic nominees, whoever they may be, but in four more or less hidden trends in national politics. First, whoever is elected in November 1988 will belong to a new generation - even Bush is almost 15 years younger than Ronald Reagan. Second, there will have
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