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West Germany: Coalition Politics Reigns
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12945 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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5 / 1987 |
1,217 Words |
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Werner Kaltefleiter
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The substantial losses of the Christian Democrats in January's election in West Germany evoked surprise abroad. However, a closer look at these results shows a stable majority of the voters support Chancellor Helmut Kohl's coalition of the Christian Democrats, Christian Social Union, and Free Democrats.
First of all, the switch in votes was an intracoalition one, not from the government to the opposition. The three coalition partners together gained 53.4 percent of the vote, one of the largest majorities in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The losses of the CDU/CSU were the gains of the FDP.
Furthermore, the ruling coalition suffered from the low turnout - about 85 percent, high by international standards but the lowest in Germany since 1949. The largest party in Bonn always suffers from low turnouts. This low turnout was caused by widespread anticipation of a victory by the coalition. Therefore, there is a CDU/CSU reserve of about 3 percentage points that could be mobilized in a close election.
In short, what looks like defeat really opens the door for a prolongation of the coalition after 1991.
Competition with Greens
The most important variable in understanding German politics is the competition between the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens for the same segment of the electorate. Since 1982, the SPD has tried to take over the symbolic positions of the Greens to win back Greens voters. This strategy seemed to be successful for a while: There was a slow but steady decline of the Greens between 1982 and 1985, but then a revival of the Greens followed.
This can be attributed to heightened concern over the environment in the wake of the Chernobyl accident and, more importantly, the legitimation of the Greens by the SPD/Greens coalition in the state of Hesse. At the moment when the oldest democratic party, the SPD, formed this coalition in December 1985, the Greens shed their image as outcasts and became a legitimate party. Today, about two-thirds of the population welcome the existence of the Greens. From this perspective, the Greens now are part of the establishment. Obviously, the SPD's strategy toward the Greens has failed.
This failure immediately stimulated an internal debate in the SPD about future strategy and leadership that can be expected to continue, despite the recent selection of Hans-Jochen Vogel as party leader to succeed Willy Brandt. According to previous experiences, such debates hurt a party in elections.
The selection of Vogel, a traditionalist, as party leader only set the stage for a later confrontation with the party's left wing, represented by Oskar Lafontaine, prime minister of the state of Saarland. Lafontaine is slated to become the party's deputy chairman and is likely to be the party's candidate for chancellor in the next national election. This will nearly guarantee defeat for the SPD.
One can conclude from an analysis of the situation of the ruling coalition, the SPD, and the Greens that the present Bonn government will stay in power. This may calm those allies, including voices in the
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