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China's Military Modernization: Can the U.S. Influence the Outcome?
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11634 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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9 / 1986 |
4,903 Words |
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Thomas W. Robinson
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If the United States continues to facilitate the modernization of China's military, it should also assume responsibility for the regional and global implications of such a policy. Since China is bound to play an increasingly important role in Asia, Washington should try to use what influence it has over Beijing to encourage China to pursue goals that parallel America 's own interests in the area.
The question of what, if any, role the United States can and should play in modernizing China's military has been before American policymakers at least since 1979. At every stage in China's approach to the United States on this matter, and at every commensurate stage in the development of U.S.-China relations, Washington has reasoned with itself that, on balance, it was probably useful to the American interest to go the next step with Beijing.
The reasons appear to have been: (1) that the military sales/technology transfer policy instrument was too potent to eschew in influencing for the better the course of Sino-American relations, (2) that keeping China on the American side of the great divide with the South Union was worth some risks in later years, were a more powerful China to adopt policies otherwise inimical to the United States, and (3) that in any case the Chinese had yet to demonstrate what they really desired from the United States in terms of military hardware, assembly lines, and associated technologies. A prudent policy was therefore to proceed with each next step and judge incrementally what subsequently should be done.
By 1984, with a number of high-level military missions and visits having taken place, and with the door progressively having been opened to the sale or transfer of a high volume of reasonably modern (if "defensive") military hardware and technology, the two countries reached a juncture. The Chinese have the money available from foreign trade surpluses, appear to have resolved internal differences over whether to open up a large-scale arms relationship with the United States have made decisions concerning which systems and items they wish to procure, and thus seem ready to proceed.
Previously existing impediments in other areas to the further development of Sino-American relations have been largely removed from the policy agenda or have been placed on hold. In particular, the Taiwan arms-sale issue has been taken care of pro tempore, and even President Reagan has been brought around to agreeing to proceed with a full-scale military relationship with China. Washington thus also seems ready to do business with Beijing in this realm.
During this same five-year period, China has of course been doing is best to modernize the country's military, by using available domestic resources; reconfiguring strategies, training, and deployments; and integrating into the forces the first shipments of hardware from the outside. A significant reconfiguration has also occurred in the Chinese defense industry, in some cases ceasing production of obviously outmoded material, in other instances retooling to make more highly sophisticated and up-to-date equipment, and in still other cases revamping piecemeal existing equipment and systems to make them do for a while longer.
The result has been a reasonable rate of progress - in fact, somewhat faster paced than foreign observers had previously foreseen - and the
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