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The Nine Lives of Muammar Qaddafi
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11002 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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6 / 1986 |
2,779 Words |
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Terrell E. Arnold
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Following the April 14, 1986, raid by F-111 bombers and carrier-based aircraft on Libya's terrorism support infrastructure, there was a two-day period when it was not clear whether Qaddafi himself had survived. During that period there were continuing reports of fighting in Tripoli between factions loyal to Qaddafi and others seeking to overthrow him, including military personnel. When Qaddafi reappeared at the end of the second day after the raids, many observers were quick to jump to the conclusion that he had survived unscathed. But had he?
For the nearly 17 years of his regime Qaddafi has fought a more or less constant battle to consolidate his power. Seeking to remake the very character of Libyan society, and perhaps capturing the imagination of the young in many respects, he clearly has failed to bring all the Libyan people with him as willing participants in his Jamahiriyah socialist state. Instead, for reasons of ego as well as personal safety, he has found it necessary to try to neutralize sources of opposition in many different parts of the world.
By his preoccupation with squelching dissidents, Qaddafi has announced to the world time after time that even he does not feel that his revolution has been consolidated. After nearly 17 years of trying, it appears reasonably safe to say that the odds are increasingly against his achieving a consolidation of power in the future.
Most of the difficulties the rest of the world experiences with Qaddafi are the result of his inability to stabilize his regime, including his use of terrorism and support for terrorist groups. But if Qaddafi's chair has been the focus of unremitting challenge by other Libyans, why has he remained in power so long?
There are four basic answers to this question. One obviously lies with Qaddafi himself,. The comment heard around Washington immediately after Qaddafi reappeared on April 17 was that "he has nine lives." But his survival is hardly so mystical; the one life he does have is carefully protected behind a screen of East German praetorian guards, and by a pattern of frequent, unannounced movements. For example, as the possibility of U.S. retaliation for the Berlin disco attack grew more likely, it was persistently rumored that Qaddafi went secretly to a safe haven in Aden, capital of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. But if that story is true, one must wonder why he left his wife and children in the likely target zone of his Tripoli military headquarters.
A second possible explanation for his survival is that Qaddafi's actions and postures, however antisocial they appear in the eyes of Westerners, sit comfortably with the leadership of the Kremlin. Until now, Qaddafi has been able to sustain that feeling by paying for much of the support he receives from the Soviet Union. The ability to pay from oil revenues has made Libya a bit different from other Soviet client states, such as Cuba and Nicaragua, whose support involves a continuing dole.
Evaporating resources
Recently, however, Qaddafi's ability to pay for the hardware and services he receives from the Soviets has been deeply undermined by collapsing oil prices. At this point, he is on the horns of a harsh dilemma: He can use Libya's sharply reduced oil revenues to supply the
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