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Nicaragua: Fighting Against the Government
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10575 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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2 / 1986 |
2,274 Words |
| Author
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Max Singer
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The facts on the ground in Nicaragua and the politically accepted version of the story are quite different. Both must be considered before one can evaluate prospects for 1986. In 1985 there was important progress in the reality, and moderate improvement in the international political appreciation of the people's fight for freedom in Nicaragua. 1986 is likely to be a critical year. While it could easily go either way, there seems to be good prospects that there will be a major change in the international political perceptions of the conflict in Nicaragua, which will greatly improve the possibility of a victory by the people.
Polarized Nicaragua
At the beginning of 1985 the fundamentals of the situation on the ground of Nicaragua had become clearly established. After the Somoza-style election held by the Sandinistas at the end of 1984, Nicaragua was distinctly polarized. On one side was the Sandinista party (FSLN) which completely controls the government, along with a very narrow sector of political supporters and a minority of priests and other religious, mostly those who had come to Nicaragua after the Sandinistas took power, and a small minority of the people especially younger ones.
On the other side was virtually all of the political and community leadership (labor, business, professional, etc.) that had joined in the struggle to oust Somoza - plus the majority of those people of all classes who were ready to make a judgment between the two sides.
Of course, many ordinary Nicaraguans do not feel that they can afford to express their feeling about who they want to govern them. The size of the majority against the government depends on how you count those who are "neutral."
One piece of evidence about how the mass of people feel is the increased enthusiasm and support for Cardinal Obando y Bravo and the loyal church, shown by the turnout and behavior at public masses and other occasions- in face of the widely known antagonism of the Sandinistas to the Christian churches (the Sandinistas use the atheistic "church of the poor" to try to destroy the Christian churches).
Another piece of evidence is that 5 to 10 percent of Nicaraguans have reluctantly left their country because of the Sandinistas, many more than ever left because of Somoza, even though the revolt against Somoza involved a lot of fighting in the cities.
The final evidence of popular opposition to the Sandinistas is that at one time or another more than 25,000 Nicaraguans, mostly peasants, have taken up arms against them - or have tried to join rebel groups that didn't have arms available. This is close to 1 percent of the population - perhaps five times as many as fought against Somoza - a higher proportion than any other revolutionary group in at least the last half century of Latin American history. This outpouring of volunteers suggests that popular opposition to the Sandinista regime has very broad support.
Surprising Unity
During 1985 the Nicaraguan political leadership moved to conform with the realties of the situation and the popular will. A
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