The recent vote in the House of Representatives in favor of a $100 million military and humanitarian aid package to the freedom fighters in Nicaragua by no means resolves the question of whether U.S. support will continue, or, for that matter, when democracy will be restored in Nicaragua.
Perhaps the most immediate, short-term effect of the vote has been to quiet the debate - at least temporarily - on whether to support the so-called Contras.
In the ensuring lull before the aid is scheduled for shipment, it is useful to review the combatants - their strengths, their weaknesses, and what is likely to happen now that both the House and the Senate favor supporting the democratic resistance in Nicaragua.
Sandinista military machine
First, it is useful to look at the Sandinista army. It is important to remember that it is not a national army but the armed forces of the Sandinista party. There are, at a minimum, 65,000 regulars who can be mobilized to any point in the country. In addition, the Sandinistas have about 55,000 militia who are generally based in a given geographical area; while they can be moved, normally these troops are based in the area where they live. The Sandinistas have about 120,000 men under arms, 10 times number former Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza commanded at the height of his power.
The main military strengths of the Sandinistas are the large numbers of troops and equipment at their disposal. In fact, they have more equipment they can man. This equipment is new, sophisticated, and supplied by the Soviet Union, either directly by Soviet ships or indirectly by Bulgarian ships. The Sandinistas' armament includes the Mi-24 HIND helicopter, the most efficient mechanized killer in the world. It also includes other helicopters of the Mi-8 type and about 350 tanks and armored personnel carriers.
The Soviets have also supplied the Sandinistas with heavy artillery, including multiple rocket launchers and amphibious tanks, which are very useful in the swampy areas in the eastern part of Nicaragua. Furthermore, the Sandinistas receive continuous training from the Cubans, who are integrated into the units and who, in many cases, fly the helicopters. The Cubans also command the Sandinista artillery and actually serve in Sandinista infantry platoons.
With the help of their Soviet and Cuban advisers and technicians - who are flying the helicopters, running some of the tanks, and training the artillery - the Sandinistas are able to mobilize the majority of their equipment. Much of it is not very useful against a guerrilla force, but it is not very useful against a guerrilla force, but it is well suited for an invasion of nearby countries. This is the overriding fear that afflicts Nicaragua's neighbors.
The Sandinistas appear to be stockpiling military hardware for a force of 250,000, which would mean that one-tenth of the entire Nicaraguan population would be armed, the largest buildup percentage-wise of any country in history. But while the Sandinistas claim they will eventually field a 250,000-man army, there are grounds for suspicion that these extra weapons are being imported for arming communist insurgents
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