Has the Soviet position on a troop withdrawal from Afghanistan been shifting? Is Moscow about to accept what it has in the past always refused even to discuss?
Various Soviet public statements, made before and since the Geneva summit, have been cited as implying a greater Soviet willingness to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.
The question is, do they? If one is to rely on vague noises emitted publicly by Soviet officials, there is, in fact, not much upon which to base an argument. In the first place, these public statements have not been accompanied by similar statements in private discussions with U.S. officials. Secondly, such rumors about alleged Soviet good intentions--somehow these never materialize into anything more than that--have a habit of cropping up on numerous occasions.
Several examples of this tendency should serve as useful reminders of the media's propensity for self-delusion. The New York Times, on February 1, 1980, quoted Occidental Petroleum chairman Armand Hammer as having been told by the Soviet ambassador to the United States that "the Soviet Union planned to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, but did not specify when." Added Hammer: The Soviet ambassador "has never lied to me."
According to George Kennan (The Washington Post, February 28, 1980), "The United States should not seek to increase the Soviet difficulty there, but rather explore the hints that the Soviets may seek a way out." Elsewhere there have appeared such flat statements as "The Soviet Union wants very much to negotiate its way out of Afghanistan" (Christian Science Monitor, February 22, 1982 or Dan Rather pronouncement on "The CBS Evening News" January 25, 1983) that "there are indications tonight that the Soviet Union may be looking for a way to disentangle itself from Afghanistan."
Some might cite recent Soviet "frank admissions" about the cost of the war and argue that the present situation, six years after the Soviet invasion, is very different. The Washington Post, for instance, made such a point recently: "Soviet officials, apparently concerned about the toll their six-year-old military involvement in Afghanistan has taken, have begun to voice complaints about rising casualties and admitted to reporters that they are 'not very happy' with the situation" (November 18, 1985). Here too, however, what was being said at the end of 1985 was already being written at the end of 1983: "As the diplomatic, military, and economic costs of its involvement have grown, Moscow has searched for a face-saving way out." (Selig Harrison, USA Today, December 27, 1983).
Serving Soviet Purposes
The predilection for seeing far-reaching implications of a profound Soviet longing for withdrawal of its troops has so far only been evident among Western observers. Moscow has periodically encouraged such speculations in the Western press precisely because they serve the Soviet purposes.
Moscow's negotiating posture has been clear from the start and has not, in fact, budged from that position since then, it has insisted that the question of Soviet troop withdrawal is a purely bilateral issue between the Babrak Karmal regime and the Soviet Union and is
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